No Repeat Of The Algerian Solution

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No Repeat Of The Algerian Solution

The west must support Palestinian elections, even if they boost Hamas


Yezid Sayigh
The Guardian
June 10, 2005

When Mahmoud Abbas was elected president of the Palestinian Authority in January, President Bush offered this as evidence of the march of democracy across the Middle East triggered by the US invasion of Iraq. But Palestinian democracy is about to suffer a serious setback unless Abbas, backed by the US administration and the EU, acts decisively to protect it.

Last weekend Abbas postponed parliamentary elections due on July 17. This was for valid technical reasons, but his failure to set a new date has precipitated a crisis in relations with the Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas, which regards the decision as a breach of the deal it struck with him earlier this year. Hamas agreed to halt attacks on Israel in return for the promise that the elections would be held in July, coinciding with the Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and allowing Hamas to present itself as the resistance force that drove the Israelis out. Angered by the prospect of a lengthy delay, Hamas demonstrated its ability to undermine Abbas's diplomacy in response on Tuesday, rocketing an Israeli town across the border and an Israeli settlement in Gaza.

No less worrying is that in such an atmosphere, the planned Israeli withdrawal from Gaza in July could trigger violent competition over evacuated settlement areas between Hamas, Abbas's Fatah movement, and PA security services - leaving it a patchwork of contending zones of control. If the protests by armed Fatah militants and PA security personnel in Gaza a year ago are anything to go by, the PA might declare a state of emergency, making elections impossible. All of this bodes ill for Palestinian democracy, and for any hope of resuming the peace process once Israel has withdrawn from Gaza.

There are two urgent imperatives. First, Hamas must be assured that it will not be denied the opportunity to translate its increased popularity among the Palestinian public into parliamentary seats and cabinet posts. This is a critical ingredient in its transformation into a legal political party with a stake in stabilising relations with Israel. Bringing Hamas into mainstream Palestinian politics is a prerequisite for resuming a credible peace process and persuading it to disarm.

To this end, America and the EU should encourage Abbas to set a new election date for early August. In parallel, they should hold the Israeli government to its schedule for the Gaza withdrawal and discourage it from suspending the pullout in response to the prospect of a Hamas electoral victory. Above all, the west should not allow the Fatah-dominated PA (or Israel) to subvert the democratic process in order to keep Hamas out of office. This would repeat the politically and morally dubious position it took when the Algerian military cancelled parliamentary elections in 1992 to forestall an
Islamist victory, leading to a long and vicious civil conflict. It would also make a mockery of western exhortations to Middle East audiences to embrace democracy.

Rather, the west should emphasise its willingness to accept the outcome of the Palestinian elections, even if this means victory for Hamas. Western willingness to recognise democratically won political realities, no matter how awkward, will temper Hamas's inclination to use coercive tactics as a means of ensuring elections. Jack Straw's defence of British contacts with newly elected Hamas mayors is a step in the right direction, confirming respect for the electorate's democratic choice.

Second, Abbas must overcome opposition within Fatah to an early election. Fatah's poor showing in recent municipal elections awoke it to the prospect that Palestinians might hand Hamas a large number of seats in the parliamentary elections as well. It therefore insists on delaying these elections, to gain time to improve its image with a public that regards Fatah as deeply implicated in PA corruption.

Abbas has little time left, but he can disarm Fatah opposition by ordering internal primaries to select parliamentary candidates. This would fulfil the pledge he made during his own election campaign to the "young guard", who dominate Fatah's parliamentary bloc.

Primaries were scheduled for May 27 but not held due to bitter opposition from Fatah's "old guard" leadership. If they are not held, the young guard may field its own parliamentary candidates, splitting the Fatah vote. Hamas is set to take 35-40% of the overall vote, so a split Fatah vote could grant Hamas an overall majority in parliament.

It is within Abbas's power to resolve the unfolding crisis, but if he doesn't move swiftly he may end up with the worst of both worlds: alienating Hamas without resolving Fatah's problems. This would be bad for Palestinian democracy, and leave the west scrambling once more to pick up the pieces of the peace process.

Yezid Sayigh is a former Palestinian negotiator, and will take up a chair in Middle Eastern studies at Kings College London in September; he is the author of Armed Struggle and the Search for State: The Palestinian National Movement, 1949-1993.

© Guardian Newspapers Limited 2004